A shellacking it certainly was, as the President described it. The Republicans scored a resounding victory in the House and now hold a comfortable majority. They also substantially reduced the Democrats' majority in the Senate, along with winning a large number of state houses. So, there’s no sugarcoating the results. It was a bloodbath.
Yet, what it all means is far less certain. “Cutting spending and reducing the deficit” is a sure-fire winner on the campaign trail, but how that translates into actual cost cuts is another matter. How do you reconcile that goal with tax cuts for the wealthiest one percent of Americans? And, if you exempt defense spending and entitlement programs from spending cuts – as many of the tax-cutters seem to favor – you have taken 85 percent of the Federal budget off the table, leaving only15 percent to deal with.
Do the Republicans have a mandate to repeal health care? It would appear so, judging by the number of candidates who ran on that specific platform. But, were they running against the health care reform legislation or the hideous caricature of it as advanced by the Republicans? Moreover, exit polls showed that while 48 percent were in favor of repealing health care, 47 percent favored keeping it or expanding it. Interestingly, too, “blue-dog” Democrats, most of whom voted against health care reform and distanced themselves from the President during the campaign on that particular issue, were decimated in the election. Their caucus has been cut in half, while progressive Democrats, who voted unanimously for health care, lost only four seats.
Unfortunately, moderates in both parties lost in a big way, which does not bode well for reaching across the aisle. Besides, keep in mind that traditional Republicans held their nose and rode the enthusiasm of the Tea Party to victory, but now they have to deal with Tea Party legislators and that could be divisive and distracting for the Republican leadership. It could be fun to watch. The expression “herding cats” comes to mind.
So, while the overall results for the Democrats were bad, it remains to be seen how events play out over the next year or two. Don’t pay much attention to the pundits who are predicting the end of the Obama reign. Pundits give astrology a bad name. In 1982, after the mid-term elections, they proclaimed the end of the Reagan era, and they did the same to President Clinton in 1994 when Newt Gingrich, Tom De Lay and their gang took control with their Contract with America. In short order, the Republicans overplayed their hand and Clinton coasted to an easy victory in 1996. Moreover, despite the Lewinsky scandal, President Clinton finished his two terms with highest end-of-term rating for any President since World War II.
Don’t underestimate President Obama, either. He is an incredibly intelligent and resourceful person. However, he needs to pick up his game and be willing to show more political fight, or he won’t be able to turn the tables. And, while the problem with the latest election was not just a communications problem, as the President seemed to indicate in his post-election press conference, the administration’s failure to craft a coherent message around his initiatives was a major factor and left it to their Republican and Tea Party opponents to define them. It’s no wonder the basest of charges took root among the electorate, such as death panels and the massive government takeover of health care plus the claim that the stimulus package was a pork barrel roll that did absolutely nothing.
Meantime, as the process unfolds over the next few months, we all need to take a deep breath and relax. If nothing else, it’s going to be amusing watching the Republicans trying to decide what programs need to be cut and what regulatory restrictions need to be eased. Reading a little history helps as well. There’s nothing like an historical perspective to help ease the angst and stinging pain of such a defeat. In politics, two years are like an eternity. Stay tuned.
Gerald E. Lavey
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