Be Careful What You Pray For

Like the guy whistling past the graveyard, I am trying to be cheerful amidst mounting fears over the outcome of next Tuesday’s election. We are even going to the Jon Stewart/Steven Colbert rally on the Mall on the Saturday before. It won’t change anything, but at least it’ll make us feel better.

What’s baffling about this election is that the electorate is as unhappy with the Republicans, if not more so according to some polls, as they are with the Democrats. Yet, if the polls are correct, they still want to turn control of the Congress over to the Republicans. “Throwing the bums out” has taken on a curiously capricious turn.

Could the polls be wrong? Here’s my wishful thinking: Poll data is based on responses from likely voters. Right? And how do pollsters get in touch with likely voters? Mostly by calling their landlines. But, younger voters don’t use landlines and they use their cell phones mostly as texting devices. Then, how can pollsters predict what the younger set is going to do in the next election? What if they turn out in unprecedented numbers?
Yeah, I know…. The pollsters have already thought about that. Okay, but let’s assume for the sake of argument that the Democrats retain control of both the House and Senate, but with a very tiny majority in both, the rosiest scenario I have seen anyone come up with. Is that cause for rejoicing? I don’t see how. That’ll just get us the status quo on steroids.

Although a firm believer in redemption, I can’t imagine the Republicans experiencing a change in heart, taking the election as a sign that they need to start cooperating with the President. After all, Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell is quoted as saying in a recent National Journal article that his top priority in the next Congress is to ensure that Barack Obama is a one-term president. Based on his statements, presumptive Speaker of the House, John Boehner, is no less intransigent.

So, I am beginning to think that such an outcome, where the Democrats win both houses, might be the worst outcome of this election over the long haul. That would just put the monkey firmly on the backs of the Democrats and would make them primarily responsible in the eyes of the electorate for the continuing stalemate, as it apparently has done in this election. And, as a result, 2012 could be a debacle to the point that the Democrats could lose not only the House and the Senate but the White House and several key Governorships as well, with all of the pernicious gerrymandering that would bring. So, hoping for a Democratic sweep brings to mind my mother’s gentle warning – be careful what you pray for.

On the other hand, let’s assume the Democrats retain control of the Senate, by a slim margin, but the leadership in the House shifts to Rep. John Boehner and the Republicans, as expected. Will the Republicans then be able to continue their persistence in denying the President and the Democrats any successes? Maybe – it’s worked wonders for them so far — but I rather doubt it.

The Republicans have campaigned on the promise of doing something to create more jobs and getting the economy back on track. So, if they win the House, presumably they will have to show some leadership and come up with new ideas of their own. Otherwise, an unhappy, impatient electorate – with the likely increased influence of the Tea Party — will quickly pivot and turn them out in 2012, just as they are likely to do this year with the Democrats, their “saviors” just two short years ago. On the other hand, if the Republicans use their new power trying to repeal health care reform, and other such mischief, as many rightly fear, a Democratically-controlled Senate and a Presidential veto will stand ready to rebuff their efforts.

Meantime, I still can’t help entertaining the fantasy of the pollsters getting it wrong, comforted by the memory of President Truman holding up a copy of the Chicago Tribune after the 1948 Presidential election with a front-page story reporting: “Dewey Defeats Truman.” During that campaign, Truman gained a lot of traction running against a “do-nothing” Republican-controlled Congress. Could that happen again? Probably not, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which are vastly improved polling techniques. As indicated, I’m not sure it would be good for the long haul, anyway.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, though, at the very least we’ll get a temporary reprieve from the ugly political ads coming from both sides of the aisle assaulting our eyes and ears and filling up our mailboxes.

Gerald E. Lavey