SIZING
UP THE ODDS
Although some conservative
politicians and pundits are proclaiming this the “dirtiest” Presidential
campaign in memory, I would suggest they have a selective memory. What they don’t remember is Democratic
candidates fighting back so ferociously, as Dana Milbank noted in his Washington Post column today.
Usually, the Democratic
candidates go limp in the face of GOP charges, however outrageous, figuring
that the electorate couldn’t possibly believe such outlandish claims. The Swift Boating of John Kerry in 2004 comes
to mind, as does the Willie Horton smears of Michael Dukakis in 1988. The list is long and dirty and although
Democrats also resort to negative campaign tactics they are pikers compared to
the GOP.
Like most
people, I would like to see the campaigns take the high road and revolve around
a discussion of serious national and international issues, but that is
naïve. So, I am glad to see the
Democrats counterpunching and fighting fire with fire. Elections, sad to say, are won in the
trenches and they aren’t pretty. If you
want help to separate fact from fiction on the issues – practically a full time
job, by the way – don’t listen to the campaign ads. You need to regularly go to one or more of
the independent on-line fact checking sites.
They are very revealing – and helpful.
With the
GOP’s sizeable lead in fund raising, I fear the Romney/Ryan team will be able
to win the mudslinging contest, and that could make a decisive difference late
in the campaign, but I am cautiously hopeful it won’t be enough to decide the
election.
There are three reasons
for my optimism.
For
Romney to win, he has to capture the majority of undecided voters who for the most
part are moderates. And putting a
radical like Ryan on the ticket doesn’t help there. Governors Chris Christie or Bob McDonnell, or
Bob Portman, or Mitch Daniels, maybe, but Ryan, no. Ryan can recant on his Ayn Rand fixation all
he wants, but his record is clear and unavoidable and he can’t expunge that
record regardless of how much air brushing the GOP does between now and
November. Ryan will help solidify the
Tea Party base, but the GOP had that locked up anyway. So, the Ryan selection doesn’t make sense in
terms of wooing the undecided.
Besides
the undecided/moderates, Romney and Ryan need to do very well among Jews and
Catholics and that’s a tall order. One
of the main reasons Jews have traditionally voted Democratic is that they have
had a strong belief in America’s social compact – to take care of the poor and
the disadvantaged in our society. That is a belief rooted in Jewish Scripture
and tradition. And although the GOP
thinks its unconditional support of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will
dislodge a chunk of American Jews, it won’t make a significant difference
despite
the deep pockets of the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson. Jewish American support of Netanyahu is
spotty at best.
Likewise
with Catholics, the GOP thinks it will reap a windfall of Catholic votes by repeating
the charge that the Obama Administration has “waged a war” against the Catholic
Church on the contraceptive provision in the health care law. While this tactic may win some Catholic votes
because a few American Catholic bishops are spouting the same nonsense, it
won’t sway the majority of Catholics who understand that the core of the
Catholic teaching and tradition is taking care of the poor and the disadvantaged
among us. And, to its credit, the U.S.
Catholic Bishops Conference has underscored that commitment.
So, for Romney to pick a
Catholic as his running mate shouldn’t make a decisive difference among
Catholic voters. Ryan is among the
conservatives – despite his Catholic faith -- who believe that the only people
who count in our society are those who pick themselves up by their own
bootstraps, ignoring the fact that some people don’t have bootstraps to begin
with.
My hope and trust is that
most of my fellow Catholics understand that crucial difference.
Gerald E. Lavey
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